The Fertility Gap
Go forth and multiply!!!
According to the 2004 General Social Survey, if you picked 100 unrelated politically liberal adults at random, you would find that they had, between them, 147 children. If you picked 100 conservatives, you would find 208 kids. That's a "fertility gap" of 41%. Given that about 80% of people with an identifiable party preference grow up to vote the same way as their parents, this gap translates into lots more little Republicans than little Democrats to vote in future elections.
Wonder how much abortion affects these numbers. Presumably, a politically liberal adult would be more inclined to terminate a pregnancy than a politically conservative one. Thus an unintended consequence of abortion being outlawed would be a rash of liberal births. I doubt this would sway your average pro-lifer to soften his position, but it should give an abortion-considering liberal pause.
According to the 2004 General Social Survey, if you picked 100 unrelated politically liberal adults at random, you would find that they had, between them, 147 children. If you picked 100 conservatives, you would find 208 kids. That's a "fertility gap" of 41%. Given that about 80% of people with an identifiable party preference grow up to vote the same way as their parents, this gap translates into lots more little Republicans than little Democrats to vote in future elections.
Wonder how much abortion affects these numbers. Presumably, a politically liberal adult would be more inclined to terminate a pregnancy than a politically conservative one. Thus an unintended consequence of abortion being outlawed would be a rash of liberal births. I doubt this would sway your average pro-lifer to soften his position, but it should give an abortion-considering liberal pause.
posted by Germanicu$ at 2:25 PM
2 Comments:
Hey German,
Tennis tonight? I don't know that I'm up to another pub quiz drubbing......
I think abortion is good for the GOP in a number of ways. It takes the minds of pro-lifers (at times, myself included) off the glaring deficiencies in the GOP, it aborts would-be Democrats, and it makes Republican mayors seem like their policing strategies are actually working (Freakonomics idea, which I believe).
Remember, however, that liberal states often have the lowest rates of abortions (such as Massachusettes). Now, it could just be that liberals in conservative states are REALLY hitting the abortionists scalpel hard, perhaps out of fear of raising a child in a red state. But I think it more likely that conservatives, while not quite as likely to have an abortion as a liberal, aren't as far away as we might think (or, in my case, hope)
I would very happily see abortion outlawed and the Republican Party disappear. Really, the Democrats would have a 70 percent majority, in my opinion, in this country, if they were a little more tolerant of pro-life Democrats running for office at the upper, national levels (Senate, President). As it is, only Ben Nelson of Nebraska has a consistently pro-life voting record in the Senate, and I think he may be on his way out as well. If Bob Casey Jr turns out to actually be pro-life, watch the Democrats either demand comfority or snub him at all their cocktail parties.
Another explanation might be the matter of education. Liberals tend to be better educated than conservatives, and that might translate into more effective use of birth control.
Perhaps, also, Christians who wait until they are married to have sex are unlikely to have command of the various accoutrements one uses prevent pregnancy.
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